The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Agricultural Carbon Sinks and Net Carbon Sinks in the Yellow River Basin: Evidence from Panel Data from 97 Chinese Cities

A scientific understanding of the relationship between artificial intelligence (AI) and agricultural carbon sinks (ACS) is essential for promoting the low-carbon transformation of agriculture in the Yellow River Basin, accelerating the achievement of the “dual carbon” goals, and enhancing the high-quality development of the regional economy. Using panel data from 97 cities in the Yellow River Basin in China from 2001 to 2023, this study measures the levels of ACS and agricultural net carbon sinks (ANCS), and further examines the mechanisms, regional heterogeneity, and moderating effects associated with the impact of AI on both indicators. The results indicate that: (1) AI significantly improves ACS and ANCS in cities within the Yellow River Basin. Specifically, for every 1% increase in AI development, ACS and ANCS increase by approximately 0.0111 million tons and 0.0138 million tons, respectively. This effect is more pronounced in the upper and lower reaches of the basin, while remaining insignificant in the middle reaches; (2) AI promotes improvement in ACS and ANCS by increasing the level of agricultural mechanization and the intensity of chemical fertilizer application; (3) Grain yield per unit area and agricultural planting structure positively moderate the relationship between AI and both ACS and ANCS. Overall, the findings suggest that AI plays a significant positive role in enhancing ACS and ANCS. Therefore, greater emphasis should be placed on the cultivation, diffusion, and application of AI technologies to achieve the sustained improvement of ACS and ANCS capacity in the Yellow River Basin.