Apple production under changing climate conditions in major producing countries

Apples are a vital dietary resource supporting nutrition across diverse populations; however, global climate change increasingly disrupts apple production, posing growing risks to food security. This study examines the climate-related impacts on apple production in 13 major producing countries using advanced panel econometrics on 3120 observations from 1961Q1 to 2020Q4. The results indicate that elevated temperatures adversely affect apple production, whereas prolonged periods of heavy rainfall also reduce output in the major producing countries. In contrast, expansion of cultivated area and increased fertilizer use enhance apple production. Country-specific results show that, except for Guatemala, higher temperatures are associated with increased apple production, whereas rainfall effects vary across countries. Based on these findings, this study recommends strengthening government investment in research and extension services to support climate-adaptive apple farming. This policy intervention should prioritize improving farmers' access to climate-resilient technologies, promoting sustainable agricultural practices, and enhancing training to manage the effects of temperature variability and extreme rainfall.