Potential Impacts of Climate Change on the Richness and Distribution of Endemic Anurans from the Montane Cloud Forest of Mexico

Climate change threatens global biodiversity, with amphibians from climatically stable and geographically restricted ecosystems such as Mexico’s montane cloud forest (CF) being particularly vulnerable. This study evaluated the potential impacts of climate scenarios on the distribution and richness of 53 endemic anuran species. We used ecological niche models (MaxEnt) to project current and future distributions (year 2100) under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, and assessed species representativeness within federal Protected Natural Areas (PNAs). The results indicate that 71.7% of species already fall into an IUCN threat category. Widespread habitat contraction is observed under the climate projections, with average losses of 40.3% (SSP2-4.5) and 45.5% (SSP5-8.5). Twelve species (22.6%) could lose over 90% of their current distribution, suggesting a high risk of functional extinction. Only 15.3% of occurrence records currently fall within PNAs, and key reserves such as Los Tuxtlas and La Sepultura are projected to experience significant richness declines. These patterns are consistent with an “escalator to extinction” process driven by altitudinal compression of climatic niches. Adaptive conservation strategies are urgently needed, including the identification of climate microrefugia and the establishment of connectivity corridors to enhance the long-term persistence of endemic anurans under climate change.