Anthropogenic climate change accelerates the onset of global flood timing

Floods are among Earth's most devastating natural disasters, with cascading societal and ecological impacts. Flood timing shifts amplify risks by disrupting preparedness, yet their global patterns remain largely unquantified. Using multi-model ensembles, we provide a global-scale assessment of flood timing changes under incremental warming (1.5 °C-4.0 °C). Here we show that anthropogenic forcing advances global flood timing by 0.43 ± 0.25 days per 0.5 °C of warming, with regional divergence: early-flood regions shift even earlier, while late-flood regions experience further delay. At 1.5 °C, 50.73 ± 4.23% of global land area faces flood timing shifts greater than 7 days, escalating to 52.85 ± 3.20% at 2.0 °C. Countries including China, India, and the United States are projected to experience greater population exposure. These findings highlight the need to change how flood risk is conceptualized and managed. The traditional focus on flood magnitude and frequency must expand to incorporate timing as a fundamental variable in climate adaptation planning.

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Publication Details

Journal
Nature Communications
Published
2026-05-29
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-73839-x
Primary Topic
Flood Risk Assessment and Management
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00

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article

Anthropogenic climate change accelerates the onset of global flood timing

Junguo Liu, Ying Liu, Wei Qi, Xin Jiang
Nature Communications
Flood Risk Assessment and Management
article

Anthropogenic climate change accelerates the onset of global flood timing

Junguo Liu, Ying Liu, Wei Qi, Xin Jiang
article en

Abstract

Floods are among Earth's most devastating natural disasters, with cascading societal and ecological impacts. Flood timing shifts amplify risks by disrupting preparedness, yet their global patterns remain largely unquantified. Using multi-model ensembles, we provide a global-scale assessment of flood timing changes under incremental warming (1.5 °C-4.0 °C). Here we show that anthropogenic forcing advances global flood timing by 0.43 ± 0.25 days per 0.5 °C of warming, with regional divergence: early-flood regions shift even earlier, while late-flood regions experience further delay. At 1.5 °C, 50.73 ± 4.23% of global land area faces flood timing shifts greater than 7 days, escalating to 52.85 ± 3.20% at 2.0 °C. Countries including China, India, and the United States are projected to experience greater population exposure. These findings highlight the need to change how flood risk is conceptualized and managed. The traditional focus on flood magnitude and frequency must expand to incorporate timing as a fundamental variable in climate adaptation planning.

Nature Communications
North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power (CN), Southern University of Science and Technology (CN), Guangdong-Hongkong-Macau Joint Laboratory of Collaborative Innovation for Environmental Quality (CN), Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute (CN), Shandong Provincial Water Resources Research Institute (CN), Ministry of Water Resources of the People's Republic of China (CN), Guangdong Ocean University (CN)
National Natural Science Foundation of China
Climate action
Openalex Percentile: Top 7%
Flood Risk Assessment and Management
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