The effect of electoral performance on party renomination in national and independent local parties

The process of selecting candidates for representative assemblies is a key aspect of democratic governance. We examine how political parties, particularly in quasi-open list proportional representation systems like the Netherlands, weigh candidates’ previous electoral performance in renomination decisions. We propose that different kinds of parties weigh candidates’ popularity and their partisanship differently. Therefore, some parties are more sensitive to electoral performance. Specifically, we look at the differences between branches of national parties and independent local parties, where the latter may be more responsive to the electorate. We test our hypotheses on candidates running in 2018 and 2022 municipal elections in the Netherlands. This provides us with a rich dataset, covering more than 5000 parties running in more than 300 municipalities fielding more than 80,000 candidates while maintaining consistent societal and institutional contexts. Our study enhances our understanding to what extent parties prioritize candidates’ popularity, shedding light on the complexities of candidate selection and renomination decisions.