Is the Turf Greener?

Davis Steven Johnson: Is the Turf Greener?(Under the direction of Dr. Anthony Patterson) The introduction of the NCAA Transfer Portal in 2018 and subsequent rule changes have dramatically increased player mobility in college football, with over 2,700 Football Bowl Subdivision scholarship players entering the portal in 2023–24 alone. Despite the growing prevalence of transfer quarterbacks, limited empirical research has examined how transferring institutions is associated with measurable changes in quarterback performance. This study analyzed 57 FBS quarterbacks who transferred between institutions from 2022 to 2025, using a within-subject, paired-sample t-test design to compare performance metrics from the season immediately before and after each transfer. Performance was evaluated using ESPN Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Pro Football Focus (PFF) offensive and passing grades, total yards per game, total touchdowns, and team wins. Results indicated a statistically significant increase in QBR following transfer (pre: M = 58.57; post: M = 62.93; p = .019), while no statistically significant differences were observed for any other performance or team outcome measures. These findings suggest that transferring institutions may enhance quarterback efficiency without producing corresponding increases in production-based statistics or team success. Interpreted through the lens of Human Capital Theory, these results indicate that transferring may optimize how quarterbacks apply previously accumulated skills within new developmental environments rather than generating entirely new performance capabilities. The findings carry practical implications for quarterbacks evaluating transfer decisions and for coaching staffs and athletic departments navigating roster construction in the transfer portal era. As frequent player movement continues to reshape college football, this study provides a data-driven foundation for athletes, coaches, and administrators seeking to make more informed decisions about player mobility and roster construction.