ASSESSING AI CAPABILITY IN MODERN WARFARE: A FRAMEWORK FOR EVALUATING BATTLEFIELD SYSTEMS IN THE RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR

ABSTRACT Torri Gragg: Assessing AI Capability in Modern Warfare: A Framework for Evaluating Battlefield Systems in the Russia–Ukraine War (Under the direction of Mark McNeilly). This thesis examines how artificial intelligence (AI) and autonomy are reshaping warfare in the Russia–Ukraine war from 2022 to 2026. To address the lack of a consistent method for evaluating battlefield AI, it develops the AI Capability Index (AICI), a structured, qualitative framework that assesses systems across five dimensions: observed autonomy, mission execution, performance in contested environments, operational feasibility, and deployment scale. Applying the AICI to representative systems across the air, land, and sea domains, the thesis finds that battlefield effectiveness does not consistently correlate with higher autonomy. Instead, operational impact is more strongly associated with mission execution, integration into broader operational networks, deployment at scale, and resilience under disruption. The thesis argues that AI’s most consequential role in contemporary warfare lies less in fully autonomous weapons than in enhancing coordination, targeting, and operational tempo across interconnected systems.