Earthquake Precursor Monitoring and Multi-Parameter Early Warning Scheme Based on the Encrypted Chain Fracture Model

The difficulty of short-term earthquake prediction lies in the lack of reliable precursor signals. Based on the encrypted chain fracture model, this paper extracts five independent earthquake precursor signals from the physical state changes of the encrypted chain prior to critical fracture: accelerated encrypted chain stress accumulation, nodal overflow direction deflection, anomalous free energy concentration, four-quadrant crustal deformation rate pattern, and spatiotemporal evolution of microseismicity. For each precursor signal, the physical mechanism, observational method, and early warning criterion are clearly specified. On this basis, a multi-parameter hierarchical early warning system is constructed: a single indicator trigger corresponds to an attention level, simultaneous triggering of two or more indicators corresponds to a warning level, and a sharp increase in microseismicity following a quiescence period superimposed with other indicator triggers corresponds to an alarm level. For the eight high-probability seismic regions worldwide in the second half of 2026, hierarchical monitoring priority recommendations are provided. All precursor signals in this paper are derived from the physical mechanism of the encrypted chain fracture model. All monitoring methods are based on existing technologies, and the early warning scheme can be initiated immediately.