Prediction of Global Seismic Activity for the Second Half of 2026 Based on the Encrypted Chain Fracture Model

Seismic activity prediction is one of the most challenging problems in Earth science. This paper proposes a physical model based on the encrypted chain fracture mechanism, deriving mathematical expressions for earthquake recurrence interval and magnitude from the relationship between stress accumulation and critical fracture along plate boundaries. The core equations of the model are recurrence interval T=S_crit/α and magnitude M=(2/3)·log₁₀(η·S_crit·L·W)−6.0, where α is the encrypted chain stress accumulation rate, S_crit is the fracture threshold, and L and W are the length and width of the fault zone. Using global GPS observations, historical earthquake catalogs, and geological survey data to calibrate model parameters, hindcasting validation was performed on seven landmark large earthquakes between 1906 and 2023. The model-predicted magnitudes deviate from actual magnitudes by no more than 0.1 magnitude units, and stress ratios R ranging from 0.91 to 0.98 correctly indicated elevated earthquake probability in all cases. On this basis, global seismic activity for the second half of 2026 is predicted. Regions with encrypted chain stress ratio R≥0.95 and predicted time window t_window≤1 year were identified, yielding a total of 8 high-probability seismic regions. All predictions in this paper are based on probability calculations derived from physical mechanisms. Input parameters are obtained from publicly available data. Each prediction includes the complete calculation process and error estimates. Verification with actual seismic data from the second half of 2026 is welcomed.