Updated global and regional trends of stratospheric ozone profiles
Abstract. We present updated evaluation of stratospheric ozone profile trends in the 60° S–60° N latitude range using long-term ground-based and satellite climate data records, as well as simulations by chemistry-climate models. The trends are evaluated using the LOTUS (Long-term Ozone Trends and Uncertainties in the Stratosphere) regression model. Analyses of satellite data confirm the statistically significant positive ozone trends in the period 2000–2024 in the upper stratosphere of ∼ 1–3 % per decade, with larger trends at mid-latitudes compared to the tropics. The trends are slightly positive or close to zero in the middle stratosphere, and mostly negative, −1 to −2 % per decade, in the lower stratosphere, but they are not statistically significant. The morphology and magnitude of ozone trends are similar to previous analyses (2000–2020 trends). Ozone trends in 2000–2024 predicted by chemistry-climate model simulations are in good agreement with combined satellite trends. In the upper stratosphere, models predict a slightly stronger ozone recovery than observations. In the lower stratosphere, both models and satellite observations report negative trends in the tropics, while modelled ozone trends are slightly positive at mid-latitudes. Ozone profile trends over several stations estimated from ground-based records capture the same overall vertical pattern of ozone trends as merged gridded satellite datasets. Analyses of regional ozone profile trends in 2003–2024 using merged satellite datasets confirmed the previous observations of a longitudinal structure in ozone trends in the NH mid-latitude stratosphere, with positive trends over Scandinavia and negative trends over Siberia. However, the magnitude of this dipole-like structure is reduced compared to previous analyses.
Authors
- Carlo Arosio (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8759-6390)
- Sean M. Davis (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9276-6158)
- M. Weber
- Glen McConville (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5837-7925)
- Viktoria Sofieva (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9192-2208)
- Monika E. Szeląg (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8501-3366)
- Peter Effertz (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5147-763X)
- Eliane Maillard Barras (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6513-8428)
- Jeannette Wild
- Brian Auffarth
- Ryan Fuller
- Doug Degenstein
- Ralf Sussmann (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1970-7538)
- Stacey M. Frith
- Emmanuel Mahieu (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5251-0286)
- Dan Smale (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3385-0880)
- Robert Damadeo (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1466-839X)
- Marie-Renee DeBacker
- Gérard Ancellet (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1542-6085)
- Sophie Godin-Beekmann (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3903-3040)
- Corinne Vigouroux
- Alexei Rozanov
- Lucien Froidevaux (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0681-1483)
- Natalya A. Kramarova (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6083-8548)
- Kimberlee Dube (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6103-5918)
- Richard Querel (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8792-2486)
- Irina Petropavlovskikh (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5352-1369)
- Daniel Zawada
- Thierry Leblanc
- Kleareti Tourpali
- Wolfgang Steinbrecht (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0680-6729)
Institutions
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (DE)
- Finnish Meteorological Institute (FI)
- Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR)
- Goddard Space Flight Center (US)
- Langley Research Center (US)
- Jet Propulsion Laboratory (US)
- Laidlaw College (NZ)
- University of Liège (BE)
- Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (US)
- Deutscher Wetterdienst (DE)
- University of Bremen (DE)
- Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (FR)
- Royal Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy (BE)
- Aristotle University of Thessaloniki (GR)
- University of Saskatchewan (CA)
- Sorbonne Université (FR)
- NOAA National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service (US)
- Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (FR)
- NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory (US)
- NOAA Center for Satellite Applications and Research (US)
- Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center (US)
- Laboratoire atmosphères, milieux, observations spatiales (FR)
- Adnet Systems (United States) (US)
- University of Maryland, College Park (US)
- Université de Reims Champagne-Ardenne (FR)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Atmospheric chemistry and physics
- Published
- 2026-05-28
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-7387-2026
- Primary Topic
- Atmospheric Ozone and Climate
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 0.00
Funders
- European Space Agency