Generation-to-Revenue Efficiency in Kenya's Geothermal-Dominant Grid: Exergy, Transmission Losses, and Feedback Dynamics

This paper develops the Generation-to-Revenue Efficiency (GRE) metric for Kenya's electricity grid, defined as GRE=(1−C)(1−L), where C is the curtailment rate and L is the system loss rate. GRE is computed at 0.731 for FY2024/25 against a benchmark of 0.920, representing a 21.6 percentage point gap. The paper includes an exergy analysis of geothermal curtailment at Olkaria, an I²R corridor analysis bounding recoverable transmission losses at 290–530 GWh/yr, a discrete-time feedback model with Jacobian eigenvalues exceeding unity, and a GRE trajectory projection to FY2029/30. All empirical inputs are drawn from Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA) and Kenya Power and Lighting Company (KPLC) published statistics.