Factors associated with time to first marriage among women in Somalia: a Weibull survival analysis

The timing of a woman’s first marriage is a critical demographic event with profound implications for health, fertility, and socio-economic development. In Somalia, where early marriage is prevalent, a nuanced understanding of its associated factors is essential for developing effective policies. This study aims to identify the factors associated with the time to first marriage among Somali women using parametric Weibull survival analysis. This study utilized data from the 2020 Somali Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) for 16,428 women aged 15–49. Survival analysis was employed to model time from birth to first marriage. After evidence of non-proportionality in the Cox proportional hazards model, parametric survival models were compared, and the Weibull proportional hazards model was retained as the best-fitting hazard-based model according to the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). The median age at first marriage was 20 years (Interquartile Range [IQR]: 15–24). The multivariable Weibull analysis revealed that secondary (adjusted Hazard Ratio [aHR] = 0.75; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.67–0.84) and higher education (aHR = 0.54; 95% CI: 0.46–0.64) and belonging to the rich wealth category (aHR = 0.88; 95% CI: 0.82–0.93) were significantly associated with a lower hazard of early marriage. Conversely, illiteracy (aHR = 1.21; 95% CI: 1.13–1.29), lack of radio exposure (aHR = 1.16; 95% CI: 1.07–1.25), and living in a nomadic community (aHR = 1.10; 95% CI: 1.03–1.18) were associated with a higher hazard. Regional heterogeneity was observed, with women in the Bay region facing a more than three-fold higher hazard of early marriage compared to those in Awdal (aHR = 3.23; 95% CI: 2.76–3.78). Education and household wealth are critical protective factors against early marriage in Somalia. However, the strong association with illiteracy, nomadic lifestyles, lack of media exposure, and extreme regional disparities highlights the need for tailored, context-specific interventions beyond uniform national policies. Programs should prioritize increasing girls’ access to education while addressing the unique circumstances of nomadic populations and high-prevalence regions.