Dynamic modelling of South Africa’s emissions reduction pathways under its 2030 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) targets

• Historical emissions growth is driven by population (83.4 MtCO 2 ), income (57.2 MtCO 2 ), and economic structure (32.6 MtCO 2 ), reinforcing carbon lock-in. • Energy efficiency provided the only sustained mitigation (−253.34 MtCO 2 ), but post-2012 gains were crisis-coincident with load-shedding-induced output suppression, not structural transformation. • The 239.1 MtCO 2 of carbon space is not a buffer to fill, but a choice: lock in fossil-dependent growth or invest in a just transition that makes the ceiling irrelevant. • Closing the implementation gap requires scaling JET-IP investment of R13,175 billion by 2050, with 63% required after 2035. • Monte Carlo analysis confirms peak emissions occur in 2023 with near-certainty under Moderate and Advanced scenarios, while BAU and NDC-Ceiling delay peaking to 2048–2049 (61–66% probability).