Trends and disparities in HIV before and after COVID-19 from 1999 to 2023

Despite advances in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) treatment, disparities in HIV-related mortality persist across demographic groups in the United States. The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted healthcare systems and may have influenced established mortality trends. This study evaluates HIV-related mortality in the U.S. from 1999 to 2023, with emphasis on changes following the onset of COVID-19. Data were obtained from the CDC WONDER database, identifying HIV-related deaths (ICD-10: B20–B24) among adults aged 25 to 85+. Age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMR) per 100 000 were calculated. Trends were analyzed using Joinpoint regression to estimate annual percent changes (APCs) and average annual percent changes (AAPCs). From 1999 to 2023, there were 271 932 HIV-related deaths in the U.S. The overall AAMR declined by an AAPC of −4.34%, with a slower post-COVID decline of −4.19% ( P < 0.05) from 2020 to 2023. Gender-stratified analysis showed greater post-COVID declines in women (APC: − .58%) than in men (APC: −3.90%). Older adults (85+) experienced a post-COVID increase in mortality (APC: +12.37%). Urban centers showed an APC increase (+2.33%), while rural areas continued to decline. Racial disparities narrowed modestly. Black and Hispanic populations saw sharper post-COVID declines (APCs: −6.21% and −6.26%, respectively) compared to White populations (−1.33%). The Southern U.S. remained the highest-burdened region across both timeframes. Observed mortality trends were temporally associated with demographic characteristics and urbanization patterns during the COVID-19 period. While HIV mortality continues to decline, the COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted progress, especially among elderly and urban populations. Persistent disparities demand targeted, equitable public health interventions.