Scope 3 Dominance in Processed Food Systems: Cradle-to-Grave Life Cycle Emissions of Infant Cereal Production

Agri-food systems account for a substantial share of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, with a significant proportion arising from upstream supply-chain activities beyond direct operational control. In this context, effective decarbonization requires systematic assessment of emissions across all life-cycle stages. This study applies an ISO 14040/44-compliant cradle-to-grave Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) to CERELAC® infant cereal, a processed dairy-based product, to quantify Scope 1, Scope 2, and Scope 3 emissions and identify mitigation pathways across the full product life cycle. Results indicate that Scope 3 emissions account for 94.3% of total product emissions, with product use (44.7%) and purchased goods and services (36.9%) as the primary contributors. Upstream agricultural inputs—particularly milk powder—emerge as the dominant hotspot due to methane emissions and energy-intensive processing. Scenario-based evaluation suggests that regenerative sourcing, ingredient optimization, packaging redesign, logistics improvements, and consumer-phase engagement could significantly reduce life cycle emissions. The findings demonstrate how product-level LCA can operationalize Scope 3 decarbonization strategies in processed food systems, bridging corporate net-zero ambitions with actionable supply chain interventions. These results provide transferable insights for cleaner production transitions within the agri-food sector.