Livelihood Constraints and Mangrove Degradation in Fragile Coastal Systems: A Mixed-Methods Analysis from Puntland, Somalia

<ns3:p>Background Mangrove ecosystems provide vital ecological and socioeconomic functions, especially in vulnerable coastal states where residents rely solely on natural resources for survival. In Somalia, poor governance and widespread poverty have increased strain on mangrove habitats, although empirical evidence relating livelihood structures to environmental deterioration is scarce. This study examines the socioeconomic factors influencing mangrove exploitation in Puntland and suggests sustainable livelihood alternatives to facilitate conservation. Methods A mixed-methods approach was used, combining qualitative insights from 27 key informants in three coastal settlements (Ceelaayo, Dhagcaan Qaw, and Xaabo) with secondary data from national surveys. Qualitative responses were transcribed, converted into binary indicators, and categorized into thematic areas encompassing livelihood systems, mangrove dependency, degradation of drivers, livelihood restrictions, and community practices. The quantitative studies included descriptive statistics, Cronbach's alpha reliability testing, logistic regression, and principal component analysis (PCA). Given the small sample size, the findings are viewed as exploratory, although they reveal significant structural insights. Results Fishing was the most common livelihood across all sites, with people relying on mangroves for fuelwood. Poverty and a lack of alternative livelihoods were frequently identified as the primary causes of degradation, with the government playing a minor role. The regression study revealed considerable links between poverty, skill limitations, and mangrove dependency. According to PCA, socioeconomic factors explained 45.2% of the variance, while governance and awareness accounted for 26.5%. Despite growing conservation awareness, ongoing livelihood restrictions have fueled unsustainable resource usage. Conclusions Structural livelihood limits, rather than lack of awareness or governance capacity, mostly cause mangrove degradation in coastal Puntland. Conservation necessitates a "Livelihood-First" strategy that prioritizes income diversification, vocational training, and access to renewable energy sources. Poverty reduction is consequently crucial for achieving long-term environmental effects. This paper presents empirical evidence of the poverty-environment link and makes policy recommendations for fragile coastal regions.</ns3:p>