Domestic Tourism Performance Under Destination Risk: Evidence from Economic Infrastructure Across Indonesian Provinces

Tourism is an important driver of regional development, yet its benefits remain uneven across destinations despite continued infrastructure investment. This study examines how economic infrastructure affects domestic tourism performance across Indonesian provinces and whether destination risk moderates this relationship. Using a balanced panel of 34 provinces from 2018 to 2024, the study applies a panel ARDL–PMG approach to distinguish short-run adjustments from long-run equilibrium effects. Domestic tourism performance is measured by domestic tourist trips and average domestic tourist expenditure per trip. Economic infrastructure is represented by energy infrastructure, transport infrastructure, and basic digital access, while destination risk is captured through crime and corruption indicators. Inflation and the COVID-19 shock are included as control variables. The findings show that infrastructure improves domestic tourism performance mainly in the long run, with limited short-run effects. However, these benefits are not uniform. Higher levels of crime and corruption weaken the positive effects of infrastructure on both tourist volume and expenditure. The study contributes to tourism and hospitality research by showing that the infrastructure–tourism relationship is dynamic, conditional, and institutionally embedded. The findings imply that infrastructure development should be accompanied by stronger public safety, governance quality, and sustainable destination management.