When ideology stops at the water’s edge. Italy’s centre-right parties, US–China competition and Taiwan

Why did Italian centre-right parties moderate their stance on Taiwan after entering government in October 2022? This article argues that the shift reflects the constraints of intensifying US – China strategic competition. Positions articulated in opposition – rooted in anti-communism, nationalism and sympathy with democratic Taiwan – were recalibrated once in office as governing parties prioritised strategic realignment with Washington while managing the risks of antagonising Beijing. Drawing on interviews, parliamentary debates, public statements, and official documents, the article advances that alliance relations functioned as the strategic driver of foreign policy behaviour, while economic interdependence with China operates as a constraining tactical consideration. Taiwan policy thus emerged as a derivative outcome of this trade-off. During Italy’s disengagement from the Belt and Road Initiative Memorandum of Understanding, Taiwan-related rhetoric and engagement were deliberately attenuated to avoid economic and commercial reprisals from China. Yet attenuation did not amount to abandonment. Once the tactical urgency subsided, the governing majority gradually reopened limited and adaptive channels of engagement with Taiwan. By tracing how ideological preferences are filtered through domestic and international constraints, the article contributes to debates on foreign policy change, party politics, and Europe’s role in the Indo-Pacific under heightened great power rivalry.