Dynamic Local and Tele-Coupling Coordination of Ecosystem Service Supply–Demand and Its Driving Mechanism in the Wei River Basin

The Wei River Basin (WRB) faces challenges including flood threats, ecological fragility, and uneven socio-economic development. However, existing ecosystem service supply–demand (ESSD) studies rarely incorporate flood-sediment transport as a core service, and systematic studies on revealing the multi-scale spatial heterogeneity and driving mechanism of ESSD coupling coordination remain insufficient. Therefore, this paper analyzed the ESSD across flood-sediment transport, eco-environmental, and socio-economic subsystems for the period 2005–2023 at three spatial scales (municipal, watershed, and county). A multi-scale comprehensive index of ESSD was constructed. Using the dynamic local and tele-coupling coordination degree (DLTCCD) model and spatial Markov model, we quantitatively assessed dynamic trade-offs and transition patterns of the DLTCCD in ESSD. The XGBoost-SHAP model and structural equation model were employed to explore the internal mechanisms through which key factors influence the DLTCCD. A zoning management mechanism was proposed by integrating the four-quadrant static model and DLTCCD change rate. The results showed the following: (1) ESSD exhibited a spatial pattern of “lower in the north and higher in the south,” with imbalances more evident at the county scale. (2) The DLTCCD showed significant scale dependence, with “spatial club convergence” of high and low levels in the Ziwuling Mountain and Longdong Plain areas. (3) Based on both the XGBoost-SHAP model and the structural equation model, precipitation was identified as the fundamental driving force across scales, exerting influence through interactive effects and a dual mediating path. (4) Zoning identification revealed structural challenges for sustainable development, marked by coexistence of coordinated and uncoordinated development zones. This study identifies the northern Loess Plateau, Qinling northern foothills, and Guanzhong Plain as key zones, proposes a “zoning-based graded intervention” strategy, and provides scientific support for ESSD management in the WRB.