Premature cancer mortality in the United States, 1999–2023: Analysis of CDC WONDER data.

11042 Background: Premature cancer deaths (defined as mortality in adults aged 20-69 years) represent significant years of potential life lost (YPLL) and substantial disease burden, yet comprehensive national trends remain insufficiently characterized. Methods: CDC WONDER cancer mortality database (1999-2023) was queried for cancer-related deaths among individuals aged 20-69 years across USA. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) per 100,000 person-years were calculated using 2000 U.S. Census standard population. Join point regression analysis identified temporal trend inflection points with annual percentage change (APC) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Stratification included sex, race/ethnicity, geographic region, and 15 major cancer types. Results: From 1999–2023, 3,847,200 premature cancer deaths occurred in the U.S. (mean 153,888/year). Annual deaths increased 12.4% (152,100 in 1999 to 171,000 in 2023), while age-standardized mortality declined 18.6% (ASMR 87.3 to 71.1 per 100,000). Joinpoint analysis identified three phases: stability in 1999–2005 (APC −0.42%), accelerated decline in 2005–2015 (APC −2.18%), and slower improvement in 2015–2023 (APC −0.73%). Males had higher mortality than females in 1999 (ASMR 105.4 vs 69.2), with declines in both sexes (APC −1.89% males; −2.34% females), narrowing the male–female gap from 52.2% to 37.8% by 2023. Racial/ethnic disparities persisted: Black Americans had the highest ASMR in 2023 (84.3), 18.6% higher than Whites (71.1), with slower declines (APC −1.23% vs −2.07%); Hispanics/Latinos had the lowest ASMR (52.8) and fastest declines (APC −3.12%); American Indian/Alaska Native populations showed persistently high rates (89.2) with minimal change (APC −0.18%). In 2023, leading contributors were lung (38,200 deaths; ASMR 17.5; APC −3.78%), breast (23,100; 10.5; −2.45%), colorectal (11,800; 5.3; −3.12%), pancreatic (8,400; 3.8; −0.28%), and ovarian cancer (6,200; 2.8; −1.86%), together accounting for 58.2% of premature deaths. Cervical cancer declined sharply (APC −4.23%), while melanoma increased (APC +2.15%). Conclusions: Premature cancer mortality in the United States declined 18.6% from 1999-2023, yet significant and widening disparities persist by race/ethnicity, geography, and socioeconomic status. Alarming stagnation in declining rates post-2015, coupled with increasing absolute deaths among aging cohorts, signals necessity for intensified prevention efforts targeting modifiable risk factors.

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Journal
Journal of Clinical Oncology
Published
2026-05-27
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1200/jco.2026.44.16_suppl.11042
Primary Topic
Economic and Financial Impacts of Cancer
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article
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article

Premature cancer mortality in the United States, 1999–2023: Analysis of CDC WONDER data.

Kofi Boakye Opoku, Kwame Adjei Sefah, Ibrahim Balogun, Tapan Ramesh Giri
Journal of Clinical Oncology
Economic and Financial Impacts of Cancer
article

Premature cancer mortality in the United States, 1999–2023: Analysis of CDC WONDER data.

Kofi Boakye Opoku, Kwame Adjei Sefah, Ibrahim Balogun, Tapan Ramesh Giri
article en

Abstract

11042 Background: Premature cancer deaths (defined as mortality in adults aged 20-69 years) represent significant years of potential life lost (YPLL) and substantial disease burden, yet comprehensive national trends remain insufficiently characterized. Methods: CDC WONDER cancer mortality database (1999-2023) was queried for cancer-related deaths among individuals aged 20-69 years across USA. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) per 100,000 person-years were calculated using 2000 U.S. Census standard population. Join point regression analysis identified temporal trend inflection points with annual percentage change (APC) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Stratification included sex, race/ethnicity, geographic region, and 15 major cancer types. Results: From 1999–2023, 3,847,200 premature cancer deaths occurred in the U.S. (mean 153,888/year). Annual deaths increased 12.4% (152,100 in 1999 to 171,000 in 2023), while age-standardized mortality declined 18.6% (ASMR 87.3 to 71.1 per 100,000). Joinpoint analysis identified three phases: stability in 1999–2005 (APC −0.42%), accelerated decline in 2005–2015 (APC −2.18%), and slower improvement in 2015–2023 (APC −0.73%). Males had higher mortality than females in 1999 (ASMR 105.4 vs 69.2), with declines in both sexes (APC −1.89% males; −2.34% females), narrowing the male–female gap from 52.2% to 37.8% by 2023. Racial/ethnic disparities persisted: Black Americans had the highest ASMR in 2023 (84.3), 18.6% higher than Whites (71.1), with slower declines (APC −1.23% vs −2.07%); Hispanics/Latinos had the lowest ASMR (52.8) and fastest declines (APC −3.12%); American Indian/Alaska Native populations showed persistently high rates (89.2) with minimal change (APC −0.18%). In 2023, leading contributors were lung (38,200 deaths; ASMR 17.5; APC −3.78%), breast (23,100; 10.5; −2.45%), colorectal (11,800; 5.3; −3.12%), pancreatic (8,400; 3.8; −0.28%), and ovarian cancer (6,200; 2.8; −1.86%), together accounting for 58.2% of premature deaths. Cervical cancer declined sharply (APC −4.23%), while melanoma increased (APC +2.15%). Conclusions: Premature cancer mortality in the United States declined 18.6% from 1999-2023, yet significant and widening disparities persist by race/ethnicity, geography, and socioeconomic status. Alarming stagnation in declining rates post-2015, coupled with increasing absolute deaths among aging cohorts, signals necessity for intensified prevention efforts targeting modifiable risk factors.

Journal of Clinical OncologyVol. 44(16_suppl)
University of Nevada, Reno (US), Bridgeport Hospital (US), Yale New Haven Health System (US), Hackensack Meridian Health (US)
Good health and well-being
Openalex Percentile: Top 3%
Economic and Financial Impacts of Cancer
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