External validation of new prostate cancer risk groups by PSMA-PET (PPP3).
5112 Background: Previously, we proposed novel risk group definitions for prostate cancer patients based on Prostate-Specific Membrane Antigen (PSMA) targeted positron emission tomography (PET). PSMA-PET pan-stage nomograms (PPP3) were developed using the international, multicentre PROMISE registry (NCT06320223) to prognosticate overall survival (OS). Here, we present an external validation of PPP3. Methods: Eligible patients enrolled into our PROMISE registry database after the PPP3 data cap were included into this external validation study. Included patients had histologically proven prostate cancer and underwent PSMA-PET at hospitals in Turkey, Cyprus, Italy, China, South Africa or Germany between 2015 and 2022. PSMA-PET was standardized by PROMISE version 2 (V2); total lesion count, total tumor volume, PSMA expression score and OS follow-up were obtained as per local site practice. PPP3 nomograms were applied to calculate risk groups and Harrell´s C-indices for the external validation cohort. Calibration curves were measured for 5-year OS. Head-to-head comparison between the visual PPP3 nomogram and the simplified risk stratification table was examined by area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (ROC-AUC). Results: 1855 male patients across all disease stages with 179 (9.6%) reported deaths and median OS follow-up of 4.8 years (IQR 3.7-6.1) were analysed. In the external validation cohort C-indices (95% CI) were 0.71 (0.67-0.76) for the visual nomogram and 0.73 (0.69-0.77) for the quantitative nomogram, respectively. By simplified risk stratification table, 77 of 1855 patients (4.2%) were underestimated and 16 (0.9%) were overestimated, when compared with visual nomograms. Prognostic accuracy was comparable using both methods (AUC Nomogram: 0.64 vs. AUC Table: 0.63, p = 0.02). Conclusions: PPP3 nomograms were validated in an external multi-site patient cohort. Prognostication was accurate (C-indices > 0.70) for both PPP3 nomograms. Clinical trial information: NCT06320223 .
Authors
- Ali Kibar (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0073-2343)
- Caner Civan (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4745-3501)
- Francesco Mattana (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9523-7315)
- Sebastian Hoberück (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3601-0924)
- Wolfgang P. Fendler (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5106-3584)
- Dilsat Fırat Arslan (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3133-3134)
- Madeleine Josefine Karpinski
- Boris A. Hadaschik
- Kambiz Rahbar
- Michael Sathekge
- Weijun Wei
- Weijing Tao
- Alexis Vrachimis
- Ken Herrmann
- Tobias Maurer
Institutions
- Trakya University (TR)
- Universität Hamburg (DE)
- Xuzhou Medical College (CN)
- Shanghai Jiao Tong University (CN)
- Renji Hospital (CN)
- Steve Biko Hospital (ZA)
- University Hospital Münster (DE)
- University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf (DE)
- Martini-Klinik (DE)
- Essen University Hospital (DE)
- Second People’s Hospital of Huai’an (CN)
- University Hospital Carl Gustav Carus (DE)
- Deutsches Konsortium für Translationale Krebsforschung (DE)
- European Institute of Oncology (IT)
- University of Duisburg-Essen (DE)
- Istanbul University (TR)
- University of Pretoria (ZA)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Journal of Clinical Oncology
- Published
- 2026-05-27
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1200/jco.2026.44.16_suppl.5112
- Primary Topic
- Prostate Cancer Treatment and Research
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 0.00
Funders
- Prostate Cancer Foundation
- Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft