Global Transgression of the Novel Entities Planetary Boundary by PFAS: A Dynamic Multimedia Modeling of Irreversible Biosphere Collapse and Cross-Trophic Ecological Regression

1. Abstract Background: The anthropogenic proliferation of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) represents an unprecedented shift in global ecotoxicology. While localized toxicity is well-documented, the systemic, planet-wide capacity of these "forever chemicals" to induce a fundamental restructuring of the Earth's evolutionary trajectory remains unquantified within current planetary boundaries frameworks.Objectives: This study models the long-term, cross-trophic impacts of global PFAS accumulation to evaluate its potential to trigger an irreversible biosphere collapse and subsequent macro-ecological trophic regression.Methods: Utilizing a dynamic, non-steady-state multimedia fate and transport model coupled with a multi-species food chain toxicokinetic module, we simulated the global partitioning, long-range environmental transport (LRET), and surfactant-driven interfacial mass transfer kinetics of persistent fluorinated compounds over a 200-year horizon.Results: Our simulations demonstrate that the continuous transgression of the novel entities planetary boundary by PFAS drives a poorly reversible, systemic ecotoxicological collapse. At the base of the biosphere, the model reveals a critical impairment of phytoplankton photosynthesis, severe inhibition of carbon fixation, and subsequent primary marine productivity ($P_{primary}$) disruption. Concurrently, accelerated by wind-driven sea spray aerosol (SSA) mediation and the global distillation effect, PFAS concentrate in polar cryospheric terminal sinks, triggering a devastating trophic cascade as climate-driven temperature anomalies ($\Delta T$) turn these reservoirs into secondary emission sources. In higher trophic levels, this bioamplification surpasses critical median effective concentration ($EC_{50}$) thresholds, resulting in universal endocrine disruption and critically impaired reproductive fitness across megafauna and apex predators.Conclusions: We conclude that the combined bottom-up energetic starvation and top-down reproductive failure accelerate a profound ecosystem simplification. If current emission trajectories persist, this multi-level disruption exerts an unprecedented selective evolutionary pressure, forcing an irreversible global ecological regression toward a simplified, low-level trophic state dominated exclusively by resilient microbial and fungal life.

Authors

Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-05-27
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20402962
Primary Topic
Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances research
Type
preprint
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Global Transgression of the Novel Entities Planetary Boundary by PFAS: A Dynamic Multimedia Modeling of Irreversible Biosphere Collapse and Cross-Trophic Ecological Regression

Sergei Pushkin
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances research
preprint

Global Transgression of the Novel Entities Planetary Boundary by PFAS: A Dynamic Multimedia Modeling of Irreversible Biosphere Collapse and Cross-Trophic Ecological Regression

Sergei Pushkin
preprint en

Abstract

1. Abstract Background: The anthropogenic proliferation of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) represents an unprecedented shift in global ecotoxicology. While localized toxicity is well-documented, the systemic, planet-wide capacity of these "forever chemicals" to induce a fundamental restructuring of the Earth's evolutionary trajectory remains unquantified within current planetary boundaries frameworks.Objectives: This study models the long-term, cross-trophic impacts of global PFAS accumulation to evaluate its potential to trigger an irreversible biosphere collapse and subsequent macro-ecological trophic regression.Methods: Utilizing a dynamic, non-steady-state multimedia fate and transport model coupled with a multi-species food chain toxicokinetic module, we simulated the global partitioning, long-range environmental transport (LRET), and surfactant-driven interfacial mass transfer kinetics of persistent fluorinated compounds over a 200-year horizon.Results: Our simulations demonstrate that the continuous transgression of the novel entities planetary boundary by PFAS drives a poorly reversible, systemic ecotoxicological collapse. At the base of the biosphere, the model reveals a critical impairment of phytoplankton photosynthesis, severe inhibition of carbon fixation, and subsequent primary marine productivity ($P_{primary}$) disruption. Concurrently, accelerated by wind-driven sea spray aerosol (SSA) mediation and the global distillation effect, PFAS concentrate in polar cryospheric terminal sinks, triggering a devastating trophic cascade as climate-driven temperature anomalies ($\Delta T$) turn these reservoirs into secondary emission sources. In higher trophic levels, this bioamplification surpasses critical median effective concentration ($EC_{50}$) thresholds, resulting in universal endocrine disruption and critically impaired reproductive fitness across megafauna and apex predators.Conclusions: We conclude that the combined bottom-up energetic starvation and top-down reproductive failure accelerate a profound ecosystem simplification. If current emission trajectories persist, this multi-level disruption exerts an unprecedented selective evolutionary pressure, forcing an irreversible global ecological regression toward a simplified, low-level trophic state dominated exclusively by resilient microbial and fungal life.

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Life below water
Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances research
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