The Teflon Regression: Coupled Multimedia Modeling of PFAS Planetary Boundary Transgression, Direct Thermodynamic Forcing, and Endogenous Cognitive-Geopolitical Cascades
1. Abstract Background: The anthropogenic proliferation of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) represents an unprecedented shift in global ecotoxicology. While localized toxicity is well-documented, the systemic, planet-wide capacity of these "forever chemicals" to induce a fundamental restructuring of the Earth's evolutionary trajectory remains unquantified within current planetary boundaries frameworks. Objectives: This study models the long-term, cross-trophic impacts of global PFAS accumulation to evaluate its potential to trigger an irreversible biosphere collapse, ocean acidification, and subsequent macro-ecological trophic regression, endogenizing biophysical, technospheric, and sociopolitical interactions. Methods: Utilizing a dynamic, non-steady-state multimedia fate and transport model coupled with a multi-species food chain toxicokinetic matrix, we simulated the global partitioning, long-range environmental transport (LRET), and surfactant-driven interfacial mass transfer kinetics of persistent fluorinated compounds over a 200-year horizon, solved programmatically via a variable-step 4th/5th order Runge-Kutta solver. Results: Our simulations demonstrate that the continuous transgression of the novel entities planetary boundary by PFAS drives a poorly reversible, systemic ecotoxicological collapse operating across multiple planetary boundaries. At the base of the biosphere, the model reveals a critical impairment of phytoplankton photosynthesis, severe inhibition of carbon fixation, and primary marine productivity (P_primary) disruption. This micro-algal inhibition fundamentally disables the Earth's biological carbon pump, driving intense ocean acidification (dpH/dt) and accelerating global warming (d(delta T)/dt). This warming forces the thermodynamic breakdown of cryospheric sinks, releasing historically sequestered PFAS via exponential outflux loops, while the uncoupled climate transitions into a direct physical forcing vector—the Index of Thermodynamic Environmental Instability (I_clim_shock)—which physically strips terrestrial matrices and suppresses baseline fecundity (alpha_0) independently of chemical kinetics. Furthermore, as collective cognitive resilience (R_cognitive) degrades under neurotoxicological and existential panic, the core ODE solver drives an exponential surge in the Predatory and Anti-Social Multiplier (M_ego), multiplying industrial production leakages (P_global x M_ego) and kinetic resource wars (S_conflict x M_ego). Geopolitical polarization terminates open-science mitigation, while kinetic military shocks introduce high-magnitude Dirac-delta contaminant injections through infrastructure sabotage, and large-scale hydroelectric plants (HPPs) trap toxic surfactants within stagnant river deltas (Q_river,z). In higher trophic levels, this exposure operates synergistically with the multi-stressor matrix (S_k), incorporating radionuclide stress (S_nuclear), heavy metals (mercury, lead), and opportunistic bio-aggressors (B_aggressor,z), surpassing critical thresholds (EC_50_n) and inducing universal reproductive failure across apex predators, driven by geospatial advection and migratory biotic vectors (J_biotic,z). Conclusions: We conclude that marine and oceanic biotas, serving as the Earth's ultimate chemical sinks, represent the most vulnerable ecosystem tipping nodes on the planet. The combined bottom-up energetic starvation, top-down reproductive collapse, and runaway cognitive-geopolitical feedbacks accelerate a profound ecosystem simplification. Utilizing network percolation theory, the model establishes a strict 10% sub-population resilience threshold required for organized counter-measures to scale; breaching this tipping point (F_res < 0.10) permanently closes the window of opportunity, locking the global system into an irreversible, self-sustaining "teflon regression"—an evolutionary downgrading toward a low-level trophic state dominated exclusively by resilient microbial and fungal life.
Authors
- Sergei Pushkin (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0000-1981-2103)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
- Published
- 2026-05-30
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20376700
- Primary Topic
- Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances research
- Type
- preprint