Shelter from the storm: External threat, social identity, and support for the EU

Does the return of major warfare override identity-based constraints on European Union (EU) support? While post-functionalist theory suggests exclusive national identities act as a brake on integration, bellicist and social identity accounts argue that external threats generate functional demands, strengthening affective European orientations. Analyzing survey data from 16 countries collected 5 weeks after Russia’s 2022 invasion using a causal forest algorithm, we uncover a heterogeneous “rally” effect. Exclusive nationalists, typically EU skeptics, show the strongest positive association between threat perceptions and European pride, particularly in Central and Eastern Europe—a pattern mirrored in heightened levels of support for a common European army. We conclude that functional security demands can transform the EU from a perceived cultural threat into a necessary geopolitical shelter, even for traditional skeptics.