Gaps and Missing Links Between Circular Economy and Energy Models for the Construction Industry

Abstract Energy models are critical for the construction industry’s transition towards a Circular Economy (CE) and for meeting climate mitigation targets. However, conventional modeling frameworks frequently overlook the critical interplay between energy systems and material circularity. This article evaluates the current state of CE integration within prominent energy models—such as JRC-EU-TIMES (JET), EnergyPLAN, PRIMES, and LUT-ESTM—with a specific focus on the construction industry. Through a literature review and a comparative analysis of model architectures, the study identifies a significant gap. Most models remain “energy-centric,” focusing on technology transitions while CE perspectives are rarely considered. However, recycling (notably for steel) is partially represented in the reviewed models, higher-order circular strategies like reuse, remanufacturing, and repair are largely absent due to data limitations and the complexity of modeling material life cycles. The research highlights recent evolution of the JET model, which utilizes exogenous demand adjustments and endogenous technological optimization to bridge these gaps. By disaggregating industrial and construction sub-sectors and implementing detailed material mass balances. Moreover, to accurately support climate neutrality goals, energy models must evolve to account for the embodied energy and carbon mitigation potential of circular material flows, particularly for underserved sectors like bricks and insulation.