Association between stock market returns and outpatient visits for hypertension: evidence from a large city in East China

BACKGROUND: As more household assets are allocated to the stock market, the health externalities of stock market returns have become a focal point of interdisciplinary research. However, prior evidence has largely focused on medium to long term associations with healthcare-seeking activities, leaving the immediate healthcare seeking response in emerging economies underexplored. Leveraging data on both regular outpatient visits for hypertension (ROV) and major illness outpatient visits for hypertension (MOV), this study examines the immediate association between stock market returns and such visits. METHODS: The sample for ROV and MOV is constructed from 30,715,658 regular outpatient records and 94,370 major illness outpatient records from a major city in East China. Using daily data, this paper first quantifies the association between stock market returns and outpatient visits for hypertension. Second, it employs a regression discontinuity in time (RDiT) design to strengthen credibility. Third, it applies a monthly nonlinear model to examine how extreme negative returns are associated with MOV. Separate estimations are conducted for ROV and MOV. RESULTS: We find that outpatient visits for hypertension are significantly higher on days when the stock market declines. This association is especially strong among seniors and those with poorer baseline health. Ambient temperature is weakly associated with ROV but explains more variation in MOV. Using monthly data, we also observe a significant negative association between stock market returns and MOV, particularly during extreme market declines (e.g., crashes). CONCLUSIONS: These findings indicate a strong association between stock market returns, particularly price declines, and outpatient visits for hypertension. The association is immediate and transient, offering insights into the broader public health implications of economic shocks and filling a gap in the literature on emerging economies and healthcare seeking behavior.