Assessment of Irrationality and Uncertainty in the Innovation Strategy of Gold Mining Enterprises

Innovations are a key success factor for any enterprise in a dynamically changing and competitive market. Gold mining is a strategically important industry where sustainability and competitiveness depend heavily on innovation. This article describes the factors of uncertainty and irrationality in the innovation strategizing of gold mining enterprises. This work is devoted to the study of the role and assessment of uncertainty and irrationality factors in the innovation strategy of gold mining enterprises. The methodological basis of the research was the general theory of strategy and the methodology of strategizing, developed under the guidance of Academician V.L. Kvint. The ability of economic agents to identify and implement innovations forms of basis of competitiveness. According to the methodology of strategizing, innovative priorities of enterprises play an important role in the system of corporate strategy. However, innovation activity is associated with significant uncertainty, which determines the need for a more detailed study of this factor and its assessment when developing strategies. The paper identifies two types of uncertainty: measurable and unmeasurable. It is noted that the assessment of measurable uncertainty is significantly difficult due to the length of the life cycle of projects in the gold mining industry, where costs associated with long-term periods are discounted. In addition, the influence of behavioral factors on the decisions made has been established. The following behavioral biases of a strategic nature are highlighted: loss aversion, pure altruism, present bias, and risk aversion. Based on the analysis, an example of an assessment of measurable uncertainty in gold mining and the impact of behavioral biases on strategic decisions in the industry is provided. The results obtained confirm the importance of factors of irrationality of economic agents and uncertainty in the development of a strategy. The main conclusion is related to the need to create incentives for companies to innovate (from the government and investors), allowing producers to transfer the costs of later periods of project implementation to earlier stages, which can be achieved by implementing the proposed innovative strategic priorities.