Spatiotemporal Evolution and Driving Factors of the Coupling Coordination Among Digital Village Development, Agricultural Modernization, and Agricultural Carbon Emission Efficiency: An Empirical Study Based on a Triple-System Coupling and GTWR Model

The coupling coordination among digital village development, agricultural modernization, and agricultural carbon emission efficiency is critical for achieving green and high-quality agricultural development. Using panel data of 30 Chinese provinces (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan, and Tibet) from 2011 to 2024, this study measures agricultural carbon emission efficiency via the super-efficiency SBM model, evaluates the levels of digital village development and agricultural modernization using the entropy method, constructs a coupling coordination degree model to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of the three systems, and employs the Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (GTWR) model to reveal the spatiotemporally heterogeneous effects of governmental, market, and social factors on the coupling coordination degree. The results show that: (1) The three systems exhibit unbalanced development. The digital village development index increased from 0.430 to 0.634; agricultural modernization grew slowly from 0.308 to 0.411; and agricultural carbon emission efficiency surged from 0.146 to 0.655. (2) The coupling coordination degree of the three systems rose continuously from 0.382 to 0.661, transitioning from near disorder to primary coordination. Spatially, the eastern and northeastern regions led while the western region lagged, though Xinjiang reached good coordination (0.786) in 2024. (3) The GTWR model reveals that the marketization index (ranging from −0.0362 to 0.0559), agricultural land transfer rate (ranging from −0.1630 to 1.7952), fiscal support for agriculture (ranging from −0.0003 to 0.0232), and agricultural socialized services (ranging from −0.0019 to 0.0012) have positive effects with significant spatial heterogeneity. Rural infrastructure exhibits a “positive in the south, negative in the north” pattern (ranging from 0.0540 to 1.0460), while the overall social consumption level (ranging from −0.9680 to 0.6548) exerts a negative inhibiting effect. These findings provide a theoretical basis for understanding the spatial heterogeneity of the coupling coordination among the three systems and emphasize that differentiated, regionally tailored strategies are key to promoting green and high-quality agricultural development.