Scenario analysis of electric and hybrid mobility pathways for light-duty transport in Ecuador

Ecuador’s transport sector is a major source of greenhouse gas emissions within the national energy system, making light-duty vehicle decarbonization a key priority for climate mitigation. This study evaluates alternative mobility transition pathways for Ecuador between 2022 and 2050 using the Open Source Energy Modelling System (OSeMOSYS) through MUIO. Three scenarios are assessed: a business-as-usual scenario (BAU), an electromobility scenario aligned with Ecuador’s National Electromobility Strategy (ENEM), and a hybrid electric vehicle scenario (HEV) that explores the role of hybrid vehicles under slower battery electric vehicle deployment. The results show that both ENEM and HEV reduce emissions compared with BAU by 2035. ENEM achieves the highest mitigation potential, reducing emissions by 2.44 MtCO₂e and contributing approximately 23% to the Second NDC target, while HEV reduces emissions by 2.06 MtCO₂e and contributes approximately 19%. Both scenarios also reduce cumulative energy demand over 2022–2050, with ENEM achieving a 12.14% reduction and HEV a 6.14% reduction relative to BAU. Under ENEM, transport electrification requires a cleaner electricity supply, supported mainly by hydropower, with additional solar and wind generation. The HEV scenario also improves energy security by reducing total fuel imports, mainly gasoline and diesel. Overall, the findings suggest that battery electric vehicles should remain Ecuador’s long-term decarbonization pathway, while hybrid vehicles can support the transition by reducing emissions and fossil fuel dependence during the scaling-up of charging infrastructure and power syst