Warning for climate tipping without compromising credibility

Abstract Early warnings for climate tipping points should clearly convey their significant uncertainties, to maintain transparency and avoid perceptions of overstatement. This includes doubts about the existence of climate tipping points, which must often be assumed a priori in order to assess their early-warning signals, as well as doubts about their proximity. When such uncertainties are not clearly communicated, both updated assessments and continued absence of detected tipping can erode public trust and scientific credibility concerning future warnings for climate tipping. Moreover, this could even be misinterpreted by the public as more general ignorance about impacts of climatic change. So, perceived overstatement in this context may weaken support for climate policy in general. We stress that regardless of uncertain climate tipping points, climate action is already imperative because of the undisputed impacts of climate change. Also, an overemphasis on uncertain tipping points may sometimes obscure well-established evidence for the urgent need for climate policy. Despite strong mathematical foundations, Earth system complexity and unresolved uncertainties constrain the application and communication of tipping-point theory, highlighting the need for further elaboration. The uncertainty of climate tipping points furthermore underscores the need for adaptive planning, considering both tipping-point and non-tipping point scenarios, while safeguarding that climate policy remains based on scientific evidence.