Distributional dynamics of emissions: the role of globalization and resource rents in G20 countries

This study examines the impact of globalization and natural resource rents on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in G20 economies over the period 2000–2024. Given that these countries account for a substantial share of global emissions and resource consumption, understanding these relationships is crucial for effective climate policy design. The analysis employs robust panel estimation techniques, including Fixed Effects, Driscoll–Kraay standard errors (DKSE), and Panel-Corrected Standard Errors (PCSE), alongside advanced distributional approaches such as Method of Moments Quantile Regression (MMQR) and Bootstrap Quantile Regression (BSQR) to capture heterogeneity across emission levels. The results reveal that globalization significantly reduces emissions, particularly in high-emission economies, supporting the pollution halo hypothesis by highlighting the role of technology transfer, cleaner production processes, and international environmental standards. In contrast, natural resource rents and economic growth are found to increase emissions, confirming the dominance of resource-intensive activities and scale effects. Renewable energy consumption exhibits a mitigating effect primarily in low-emission economies, whereas its impact remains limited in high-emission contexts, reflecting transitional inefficiencies in energy systems. Population effects are found to be heterogeneous and context-dependent across quantiles. Furthermore, the Juodis–Karavias–Sarafidis (JKS) non-causality test confirms causal relationships running from globalization, natural resource rents, and economic growth to emissions. The findings reveal significant distributional heterogeneity and underscore the importance of quantile-specific and country-tailored environmental policies. These results highlight the need to promote sustainable resource management, accelerate renewable energy deployment, and strategically leverage globalization to foster green technological innovation.