Evaluating the impact of the belt and road initiative on supply chain efficiency: an analysis between China and Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, UAE, and Saudi Arabia

Abstract This paper discusses how the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) affect logistics infrastructure and supply chain performance in China and some of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, and specifically how the quality of governance moderate these effects. The analysis utilizes a balanced panel dataset between 1996 and 2023 that employs a fixed effect panel regression model, which compares pre- and post-BRI to understand the structural changes that have occurred after the introduction of the initiative in 2013. The results indicate that BRI-related investment has no statistically significant direct impact on logistics infrastructure in both periods, but the connection is more positive in the post-BRI period. Conversely, government efficacy develops into one of the major contributors of supply chain efficacy in the post-2013 period, revealing the decisive importance of institutional quality to the outcomes of infrastructure investment. The findings also indicate that demographic challenges and financial allocation affect the outcome of performance, and governance conditions determine the success of BRI-related initiatives. On the whole, the paper highlights that the advantages of the BRI are not self-evident but require robust institutional structures, which necessitates concerted efforts to reform governance and invest in infrastructure to achieve the greatest possible economic benefits in the long term.