Green Energy Finance and Agricultural Performance in MENA Region: Structural Pathways Toward Sustainability

This study investigates the macroeconomic, institutional, and energy-related determinants of agricultural value added in Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries over the period 2000–2023, with particular emphasis on whether international clean energy finance operates as a conditionally effective driver depending on energy endowments. Using a panel fixed-effects framework with Driscoll–Kraay standard errors to address cross-sectional dependence, heteroskedasticity, and serial correlation, the analysis incorporates an interaction term between clean energy finance and an oil-exporting dummy to capture structural heterogeneity. Robustness is ensured through Panel-Corrected Standard Errors (PCSEs), Granger causality tests, and System GMM estimation. The findings reveal that GDP per capita and clean energy finance are positively and significantly associated with agricultural value added, while trade openness negatively affects the sector. Importantly, the interaction results indicate strong asymmetry: the positive contribution of clean energy finance is concentrated in non-oil economies but becomes weak or insignificant in oil-exporting countries, consistent with diminishing marginal returns in energy-abundant contexts. Inflation captures nominal price effects, while short-run dynamics suggest the presence of adjustment costs. Overall, the study highlights that clean energy finance acts as a structurally conditional mechanism, offering nuanced and policy-relevant insights for sustainable agricultural transformation in MENA economies.