Tobacco smoking, smoking cessation and life expectancy among people with HIV on antiretroviral therapy in South Africa: a simulation modelling study

As access to effective antiretroviral therapy (ART) has improved globally, tobacco‐related illnesses, including cardiovascular disease, cancer and chronic respiratory conditions, account for a growing proportion of deaths among people with HIV (PWH). We estimated the impact of tobacco smoking and smoking cessation on life expectancy among PWH in South Africa. In a microsimulation model, we simulated 18 cohorts of PWH with virologic suppression, each homogenous by sex, initial age (35y/45y/55y) and smoking status (current/former/never). Input parameters were from data sources published between 2008 and 2022. We used South African data to estimate age-stratified mortality hazard ratios: 1.2−2.3 (females)/1.1−1.9 (males) for people with current versus never smoking status; and 1.0−1.3 (females)/1.0−1.5 (males) for people with former versus never smoking status, depending on age at cessation. We assumed smoking status remains unchanged during the simulation; people who formerly smoked quit at model start. Simulated PWH face a monthly probability of disengagement from care and virologic non-suppression. In sensitivity analysis, we varied smoking-associated and HIV-associated mortality risks. Additionally, we estimated the total life-years gained if a proportion of all virologically suppressed PWH stopped smoking.Forty-five-year-old females/males with HIV with virologic suppression who smoke lose 5.3/3.7 life-years compared to PWH who never smoke. Smoking cessation at age 45y adds 3.4/2.4 life-years. Simulated PWH who continue smoking lose more life-years from smoking than from HIV (females, 5.3 vs. 3.0 life-years; males, 3.7 vs. 2.6 life-years). The impact of smoking and smoking cessation increase as smoking-associated mortality risks increase and HIV-associated mortality risks, including disengagement from care, decrease. Model results are most sensitive to the smoking-associated mortality hazard ratio; varying this parameter results in 1.0−5.1 life-years gained from cessation at age 45y. If 10−25% of virologically suppressed PWH aged 30−59y in South Africa stopped smoking now, 190,000−460,000 life-years would be gained. Among virologically suppressed PWH in South Africa, tobacco smoking decreases life expectancy more than HIV. Integrating tobacco cessation interventions into HIV care, as endorsed by the World Health Organization, could substantially improve life expectancy.