Influence of Urban Compactness on the Supply–Demand Matching of Ecosystem Services—A Case Study of Guanzhong Plain Urban Agglomeration of China

Whether compact urban development can achieve a spatial balance in the supply and demand of ecosystem services remains unclear amidst rapid urbanization. Understanding this relationship is critical for territorial spatial planning. Using Guanzhong Plain Urban Agglomeration as a case study, we applied local spatial autocorrelation to reveal spatial trade-offs and synergies, and employed ordinary least squares and geographically weighted regression models to analyze the underlying mechanisms. Results demonstrate that urban compactness is significantly negatively correlated with supply–demand gaps for carbon storage (r = −0.66), habitat quality (r = −0.58), recreation services (r = −0.60), and water yield (r = −0.63), while positively correlated with gaps for grain production and soil conservation. The GWR model outperformed the ordinary least squares model, with improvements in adjusted R2 ranging from 0.0019 to 0.13. Land use intensity and GDP emerged as the dominant drivers of spatial heterogeneity in the ecosystem service supply–demand ratio, accounting for 66.21% and 51.08% of the variance, respectively. These findings provide a scientific basis for integrating compact urban form with ecosystem management in sustainable landscape planning.