Scenario analysis of electric and hybrid mobility pathways for light-duty transport in Ecuador

Ecuador’s transport sector is one of the main sources of greenhouse gas emissionswithin the national energy sector, making light-duty vehicle decarbonization a relevantmitigation priority for the country’s Second Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC)for 2026–2035. This study evaluates alternative mobility transition pathways usingOSeMOSYS through MUIO, focusing on the role of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) andhybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) in reducing fossil fuel consumption, transport emissions,energy demand, and fuel import dependence between 2022 and 2050. Three scenarios are analyzed. The BAU scenario represents the baseline pathwayunder current trends, without additional electrification targets. The ENEM scenariofollows Ecuador’s National Electromobility Strategy, assuming stronger BEVdeployment in line with national electromobility targets, while also considering HEVs asa complementary technology. The HEV scenario explores a slower BEV deploymentpathway, where hybrid vehicles play a stronger transition role in reducing gasolineconsumption and direct CO₂ emissions under possible infrastructure, market, orelectricity supply constraints. The results show that both ENEM and HEV will reduce emissions compared with BAUby 2035. BAU reaches 28.08 MtCO₂e, while ENEM reaches 26.48 MtCO₂e, equivalentto a reduction of 1.60 MtCO₂e and a 15% contribution to the NDC conditional target.HEV also remains below BAU, reaching 27.41 MtCO₂e, with a reduction of 0.67 MtCO₂eand a 6% contribution to the NDC conditional target. Over the 2022–2050 period, ENEMreduces cumulative energy demand by 759.34 PJ, or 12.14%, while HEV reduces it by383.97 PJ, or 6.14%, compared with BAU. The electricity supply results show thathydropower remains the backbone of clean generation, increasing from 88.7 PJ in 2022to 123.9 PJ in 2050, while solar energy shows the strongest growth, reaching 78.9 PJin ENEM, 72.5 PJ in HEV, and 70.6 PJ in BAU by 2050. Fuel import results indicate thatfossil fuel dependence remains relevant, although transition scenarios reduce gasolineimports: by 2050, gasoline imports reach 327.8 PJ in BAU, compared with 260.9 PJ inENEM and 299.9 PJ in HEV. Overall, ENEM provides the strongest long-termdecarbonization pathway, while HEVs can serve as a complementary transitiontechnology as Ecuador expands charging infrastructure, strengthens power systemreadiness, and advances toward sustainable mobility.