Economic Growth and Industrial Pollution Emissions in the Yangtze River Delta Cities: An Integrated Analysis of Decoupling and Convergence

This study analyzes a balanced panel of 41 Yangtze River Delta cities from 2006 to 2021 to assess whether and why economic growth has decoupled from industrial pollution. Furthermore, this study proposes a two-dimensional decoupling framework that combines Tapio elasticity with development stages, quantifies driver contributions using an LMDI–Tapio decomposition, and estimates spatial β-convergence in pollution intensity. Key findings include the following: (1) By 2021, all YRD cities exhibit decoupling, with heterogeneity across pollutants and cities. (2) Technological progress effect is the dominant enabler of decoupling, while economic development poses a significant barrier. (3) Industrial sulfur dioxide, smoke and dust intensity, and the composite industrial pollution index show notable spatial β-convergence, with smoke and dust intensity converging most rapidly. The results inform technology-focused policies and cross-city coordination in the YRD.