MEET-eaters: An agent-based model of food consumption practices at the household level

The shift towards less meat and more plant-based consumption is vital for environmental quality, public health, animal welfare, and food security. So far, no studies have examined both the two-way interaction between supermarket supply and household demand, and the role of decision-making about meals within households. This study introduces the agent-based model MEET-eaters, a computational model representing supermarkets, households, and consumers, that was developed to explore these two-way interactions in the Dutch socio-cultural context. The model simulates the effect of supply that is unlimited, fixed, or responsive to the meal choices of households. The approaches to choosing meals are based on the Dutch context. Model development and assumptions were reviewed with experts to enhance model acceptance and understanding. Two interventions were tested, that aimed at either consumer meal preference or supermarket supply. Results show that supermarket supply and household demand both strongly influence the meal choice. Moreover, patterns in meal choices of households are similar under unlimited and responsive supply of supermarkets. The intervention aiming to change supply was most effective when animal-based options were restricted. Results from the intervention changing dietary preference shows that targeting either a large group at random or a smaller high-status group resulted in a similar reduction of animal-based and increase in plant-based meals. For shorter intervention durations, meal choice reverted to pre-intervention patterns once the interventions were discontinued. The results imply that the persistent high availability of animal-based (meat, fish, dairy) options under responsive supply weakens incentives for consumers to purchase plant-based options. In addition, targeting population groups based on status or size could result in more plant-based consumption. Overall, the findings suggest that long-term policies are required to achieve and sustain a shift towards more plant-based diets.