A risk index for fusiform rust disease predicts mortality and stem defect in genetically improved Pinus taeda plantations

• A rust risk index gives the percentage of trees with disease symptoms at a base age. • We fit mortality and defect models for Pinus taeda plantations including rust risk. • Mortality at stand age twelve years depended strongly on the rust risk index. • Rust risk increased defect rates, although other sources of defect were common. • Continued investment in resistance breeding will increase forest productivity.