Stopping the spread: The spatial diffusion of Mexican organized crime and their implications for targeted intervention

This study examines spatial diffusion patterns of organized crime (OC) groups across Mexico from 2000 to 2018. We analyze whether OC diffusion follows contagious, hierarchical, or spatio-hierarchical patterns. Using data on nine OC groups, we employ spatial event history models to compare diffusion mechanisms while considering geographic proximity and population hierarchy. Our findings show hierarchical diffusion dominates, followed by spatio-hierarchical patterns. Contagious spread less frequently. Models reveal differences between groups, with some relying on proximity-based diffusion, while others prioritizing high-density hubs. Interventions should match diffusion patterns, where perimeter containment suits contagious spread, while preventive cordons counter hierarchical expansion.