The Dynamics of Succession Effects in Presidential Elections: Kamala Harris and the 2024 Presidential Election Campaign

Abstract This paper extends presidential succession effects theory to Kamala Harris’s 2024 campaign. There was hope that Joe Biden’s weak popularity would not undermine her campaign, but presidential election succession theory suggests strong Biden effects on her candidacy because she was a vice president running in an immediate election. Drawing on daily approval and favorability data from 538, seven partisan subgroup surveys from AP-NORC, and individual-level voting data from AP VoteCast, results show a strong impact of voter assessments of Biden on support and voting for Harris. These findings reinforce the theoretical prediction that immediate vice-presidential succession elections are highly sensitive to outgoing presidential approval. The paper contributes to scholarship on succession effects by extending analysis beyond post-election data and highlights the strategic limitations faced by vice-presidential successors in polarized political environments.