Effects of shared autonomous vehicle supply on private car ownership behaviour and urban traffic flow

This study is an investigation of the effect of shared autonomous vehicle (SAV) deployment on private car ownership among households in Tehran. Data from 318 households were collected through a field survey and analysed using a binary logistic regression model. The receiver operating characteristic curve, Hosmer–Lemeshow test and model coefficients confirmed the model’s accuracy and goodness of fit. The findings show that familiarisation with SAVs significantly increases the willingness to use these vehicles and reduces the intention to own private cars. Specifically, 59% of respondents indicated a willingness to reduce their use of private vehicles, and 54% reported that they would reconsider purchasing a new car. Although socioeconomic variables, such as household income and the number of employed household members, remain influential, their effects diminish after the introduction of SAVs. Lower costs, improved accessibility and such issues as parking shortages were identified as the main drivers encouraging the substitution of SAVs for private vehicles. Furthermore, a random forest model revealed that household size and the number of employed members are most significant in predicting SAV usage. Overall, the results indicate that adopting SAVs can reduce dependence on private car ownership and contribute to notable improvements in urban traffic conditions.