Integrating Well-to-Wheel Life Cycle Assessment and System Dynamics to Evaluate the Carbon and Health Impacts of BEVs and FCEVs Under Taiwan’s 2050 Net-Zero Pathway

To address transportation-related emissions, Taiwan’s 2022 net-zero strategy sets targets to increase the adoption of battery electric vehicles (BEVs). However, current policy frameworks insufficiently consider the technological diversity of low-emission alternatives, particularly hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs). This study integrates a well-to-wheel life cycle assessment (LCA) with system dynamics modeling to evaluate and compare the environmental and health impacts of transitioning from internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) to BEVs and hydrogen FCEVs. The framework incorporates LCA-based carbon emissions and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) into a dynamic population simulation. Results show that, while DALY effects on life expectancy and population growth are limited, low-carbon vehicle adoption substantially reduces environmental burdens and helps moderate population decline. Projections to 2050 highlight significant emission-reduction potential, with hydrogen FCEV carbon emissions decreasing as renewable energy in hydrogen production increases. Adoption of green hydrogen could achieve a net-negative carbon balance for hydrogen FCEVs by 2049, positioning them as a sustainable long-term alternative to BEVs.