Impact of Climate Change and River Water Pollution on Rice Yields in India

Rising temperatures are expected to adversely affect agricultural productivity and reduce the capacity of river waters to assimilate oxygen-demanding wastes, such as biological oxygen demand (BOD), beyond the level where damage occurs due to reduced dissolved oxygen saturation. This study aims to estimate the impact of increasing river water pollution and rising temperature on paddy yields in India using district-level information for 1990–2005. It uses two-way panel fixed effect models. We find that higher levels of BOD and chemical oxygen demand in river water negatively affect paddy yields in regions where observed temperatures are 29°C or higher, and the impact intensifies with increasing temperature. The policy implication of the empirical findings is that controlling river water pollution facilitates climate change adaptation. JEL Classification: Q54, C23, Q16