The evolving disease burden of lung cancer (2014–2023) in Qingdao, China: An observational trend study with projections

Long-term trend studies on the burden of lung cancer in Qingdao, a coastal city in China, remain limited. Therefore, this study aimed to assess temporal trends in the burden of lung cancer over 10 years and to project future patterns through 2028. Based on lung cancer incidence and mortality data obtained from the Qingdao Center for Disease Control and Prevention for the period 2014 to 2023, we calculated the age-standardized incidence rates by world standard population (ASIRW), age-standardized mortality rates by world standard population (ASMRW), and age-standardized years of life lost rates by world standard population (ASYRW) per 1,00,000 population. Temporal trends were assessed through Joinpoint regression analysis to estimate average annual percentage changes (AAPC). The GM (1,1) model was used for exploratory forecasting of lung cancer burden trends. In Qingdao, a statistically significant increasing trend was observed for ASIRW in females, with an AAPC of 3.48% (95% CI: 0.97 to 6.30, P = .004). The overall trend of ASMRW decreased with the AAPC of -2.11% (95% CI: -2.70 to -1.54, P < .001). Similarly, the ASMRW exhibited statistically significant declining trends in both males and females, with the AAPC of -1.59% (95% CI: -2.43 to -0.78, P < .001) and -2.92% (95% CI: -4.26 to -1.64, P < .001), respectively. The ASYRW showed trends consistent with that of ASMRW. Exploratory projections to 2028 indicated that the ASIRW, ASMRW, and ASYRW will generally decline, except for the ASIRW in females. These findings underscore the need for targeted interventions focusing on high-risk populations, particularly specific subgroups of women, while providing descriptive epidemiological evidence to inform future public health surveillance.