Multi-scenario simulation of spatiotemporal changes of land use and ecosystem services in the plateau mountain city

The ecosystem of plateau mountain cities is highly vulnerable to damage and possesses limited ecological resilience. Influenced by human activities, they face prominent issues such as ecosystem degradation. Scenario-based analysis of land use and ecosystem services (ESs) is therefore essential for ensuring ecological sustainability in such regions, taking Kunming, a typical plateau mountain city, as the study area. We employed an integrated modeling approach that combined Markov-FLUS and InVEST to examine water yield, soil conservation, carbon storage, and habitat quality under different land use scenarios from 2030 to 2050. Trade-offs/synergies among ESs were examined through Spearman correlation analysis. Results demonstrate that: (1) Under the natural development scenario (NDS), construction land will expand substantially. Under the cropland protection scenario (CPS), construction land will expand slightly, and cropland will increase. Under the ecological protection scenario (EPS), forest land and grassland will increase, while construction land will remain almost unchanged. (2) Under NDS and CPS, water yield will increase, mainly in the metropolitan center of Kunming and its adjacent areas. However, soil conservation, carbon storage, and habitat quality will decrease in these areas. Under EPS, water yield will decrease, while soil conservation, carbon storage, and habitat quality will increase. (3) There will be a trade-off enhancement of ESs in Kunming under NDS, while synergies will be enhanced under CPS and EPS. This study provides a scientific foundation for the adjustment of land use structure, the optimization of ecosystems, and sustainable urban development in cities with similar plateau mountain characteristics.