A system dynamics model for analyzing BIM technology application risk in small and medium-sized construction enterprises

Purpose Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) account for a considerable proportion of the construction industry, but face the dilemma of unbalanced informatization development and technological competition elimination. This study aims to identify SMEs' BIM technology application risks and develop a risk analysis approach to provide strategic support for SMEs' BIM technology adoption. Design/methodology/approach This study identifies 31 risk factors for SMEs adopting BIM technology from five aspects: investment, technology, application environment, demand and organization based on a literature review and expert interviews. According to pre-developed causal feedback and quantitative relationships among risk factors, a system dynamics model of BIM technology application risk for SMEs is constructed and applied for risk simulation and scenario analysis in a case study. Findings BIM technology application risk declines over the adoption period; investment and technology risks (FR, TR) experience transient initial increases; investment and organizational risks (FR, OR) remain relatively high in the long term. Multi-dimensional driven scenarios outperform single-dimensional scenarios in risk reduction, with S2 (high-speed development) and S5 (policy-demand driven) scenarios yielding optimal outcomes. Policy, demand and subject drivers exert differentiated impacts on various sub-risks. Originality/value This study provides a flexible quantitative BIM risk analytical approach for SMEs. The method accommodates both risk dynamic nature and enterprise heterogeneity, transcending limitations of traditional homogeneity assumptions and static perspectives, enabling enterprise-specific explanations of risk factor interactions, risk dynamic transmission and risk temporal evolution under varying scenarios. The findings support SMEs in dynamically adjusting BIM configurations, formulating BIM plans and risk strategies, and advancing BIM adoption levels.