Ant Colony Optimization-Driven Ensemble Learning for Carbon Emission Modelling in Fly Ash–Slag Geopolymer Concrete

This study investigates the prediction of carbon emissions from fly ash and ground granulated blast furnace slag-based geopolymer concrete (GPC) using advanced ensemble machine learning (ML) techniques. Although ML has been extensively utilized to model GPC’s mechanical performance, its application in estimating environmental impacts, specifically carbon emissions, is limited. The research employs six ensemble ML models, such as random forest, gradient boosting, extreme gradient boosting (XGB), CatBoost, and light gradient boosting machine (LGBM), including versions optimized using ant colony optimization (ACO). Among them, the ACO-enhanced XGB model demonstrated the highest predictive accuracy with a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.97, with low prediction errors (MAE = 3.92, RMSE = 6.17). However, cross-validation and uncertainty analyses indicate that the performance differences among top models are relatively small. Conversely, LGBM exhibited the least predictive reliability. Feature importance analysis revealed that curing parameters, specifically initial curing time, curing temperature, and the dosage of dry sodium hydroxide, had the most influence on carbon emissions. To evaluate model robustness and interpretability, Monte Carlo simulation and Gaussian white noise analyses were conducted. Results confirmed that CatBoost and ACO–gradient boosting (ACO-GB) demonstrated greater stability under varying and noisy conditions, whereas XGB-based models, although highly accurate, were comparatively more sensitive to input variability. Overall, the research establishes a data-driven, efficient framework for quantifying carbon emissions in GPC, highlighting the importance of evaluating both predictive accuracy and model robustness, advancing sustainable material design through intelligent modelling.