Socioeconomic and biophysical drivers of cocoa yield variability in smallholder farms in Côte d’Ivoire

Côte d’Ivoire’s cocoa sector faces persistent low and variable yields, influenced by social, agronomic, and ecological factors, which in turn drive agricultural expansion and deforestation. Integrated studies on yield determinants remain limited. This study examines these drivers across five sub-prefectures in two climatic zones. Data from 158 cocoa producers on farm characteristics, management practices, and perceived biophysical constraints were analyzed using descriptive statistics and a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) with a Gamma distribution and log-link, incorporating study zones as random effects. Yields varied from 372 to 812 kg ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ across sub-prefectures, with no statistically significant differences between climatic zones. Three factors significantly increased yields: mineral fertilization (+ 29%, P = 0.036), aligned cocoa tree planting (+ 51%, P = 0.01), and the use of identified planting material (+ 23%, P = 0.04). Farmer age (-52%, P = 0.002) was negatively associated with productivity. Key production constraints identified by farmers included insect damage (44.9%), black pod disease (43.0%), low soil fertility (31.0%), cocoa tree mortality (27.2%), and drought (20.9%), with variation across sites. Sustainable yield improvement requires integrated interventions combining technical innovations, improved access to inputs, strengthened extension services, and generational renewal. Tailoring measures to local conditions is essential to maximize productivity and reduce deforestation pressures linked to agricultural expansion.