Geopolitical shocks and trade reorientation in a small open economy: evidence from Ecuador’s exports during the Russia–Ukraine conflict

Purpose This study aims to analyze how the Russia–Ukraine conflict affected Ecuador’s exports to Russia and Ukraine, assessing whether observed trade contractions reflect conflict-associated geopolitical shocks or broader changes in global competitiveness. This paper focuses on asymmetric effects, structural breaks and mechanisms of trade reorientation in a small open economy. Design/methodology/approach The analysis uses annual export data from the International Trade Centre for the period 2017–2024. It combines descriptive trend analysis, pre- and postconflict contrasts, nonparametric tests, structural break diagnostics (Chow test), elasticity analysis and econometric models, including semi-log intervention models and fixed-effects panel specifications. A k-means clustering analysis is applied to identify heterogeneous patterns in product-level exposure and resilience. Findings The results reveal a strongly asymmetric geopolitical shock. Exports to Ukraine collapsed by more than 80%, accompanied by a statistically significant structural break and persistent disruption of bilateral trade. In contrast, exports to Russia declined moderately without evidence of a structural rupture. At the same time, Ecuador’s exports to the rest of the world continued to expand, indicating that bilateral contractions are driven by a localized geopolitical shock rather than a generalized loss of competitiveness. Product-level evidence shows selective resilience and trade diversion toward alternative markets. Originality/value This study provides novel empirical evidence on how major geopolitical conflicts reshape bilateral trade relationships in small open economies, with direct relevance for trade policy, risk management and export diversification strategies.